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Copper market: China is influencing factor

Currently quotes on copper market remain conditionally stable. At the same time a tangible recovery, few believe. Japanese analysts believe that the September price of copper on LMEsostavit 5000−5500 USD / ton. The influencing factors in the situation become statistics in Chinese imports. In August, the growth of imports in China was marked by a metal volumes. Perhaps the increase in performance will be the impetus for cost recovery. The price of copper on the Shanghai Stock Exchange London Stock Exchange exceeds the price. Due to the difference between imports become more profitable. Consumers look around and the devaluation of the yuan. Fears in terms of continuing devaluation affect the growth of the volume of purchases.

However, none of the experts does not guarantee the further economic development of China. Some of the analysts' hopes for a recovery in demand after October. Some experts, on the other hand, do not expect anything good and we are confident that the situation will deteriorate. Negative predictions are based on the weak investment in the construction industry of China. Accordingly, while reducing the development of the sector will fall and demand for copper. Yes, and the instability of the stock market is not optimistic adds.

The experts assessing the situation in the IVkvartal reduce forecasts for metal prices. Oil continues to fall in price, the dollar continues to rise. Hence, lowering the cost of metal production in some countries. During the first six months of 2015 the break-even line in the copper sector fell. The decline amounted to 13% compared to the same period last year, to the level of 4400 USD / ton. Under such circumstances, it makes no sense to adjust the volume of production.

It is expected that this year the global production volumes of copper will increase by 5%. In 2016, growth is still 4.5%. Given the continuing decline demand, oversupply looming. As for the projects, some of them were forced to close on the fact of low profitability. However, the emergence of the deficit depends on the manufacturer. It is possible that copper deficiency will occur in 2018−2020, respectively. As for the cost of the red metal this year, it is supposed to reach the level of 5500 USD / ton. It will be very limited Despite some recovery in prices. The following year, the cost of metal presumably comes to the level of 5300 USD / ton.

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